This post is to outline the method i use.
The method i use is very simple.
I calculate the book value of a stock and discount all its future cash flows for the next 20 years.
The discounting rate i use is roughly the 20 year bond yield rate as the risk premium over the risk free rate of Singapore Bonds.
The output is to get a range of prices for each share.
The only twist I have devised is to use a monte carlo simulation for the future cash flows to account for future disasters / recessions.
The time to buy is when i have an adequate margin of safety, say around 25%.
The time to sell is when the stock price has climbed to nearly 2 times the calculated intrinsic value.