Monday, March 5, 2012

The Outlook till October 2012

This is a post to provide my personal view-point on where markets will end at in October 2012.

If nothing else, it will serve to reduce a bit of hubris when i look back at this in October 2012.

The first picture below is a snapshot of what the markets have done in the preceding six months.

Straits Times From October 2009 to March 2010

The STI had increased by 9%. The call was for caution, with posts abounding of wall of worry, mega problems on the anvil etc.

True to form, market had a different viewpoint and went up by a further 11% for the year

Straits Times From March 2010 to October  2010

The picture from October 2010 to March 2011 was different.

After treading water for a long time, the market had a few external shocks with tsunami etc not to mention greece and lost 7%.

For the next six months, nothing changed, if at all anything the loss was worse.

The market lost 12% in this period.

Now we come to the latest six months till March.

The markets are up 12%.

I think the market is likely to have a creeping upward trend till they hit 3500 at which point everybody and their grand father will tell you they knew it.

That is possibly a good sign for you to take your chips off the table.

For now, stay long.

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