Sunday, March 31, 2013

AEI Corporation

This is a post on AEI Corporation.

Have a look at the very latest one year trend on AEI Corporation

This is a very positive chart, looks good, does it not, almost 20% returns from a year back.

However, if you go back a year, you would have lost 26%.


This is from 2011 to 2012.

Going further back, one would have got phenomenal 150% returns






One does not know what the future holds, however, for what it is worth, their dividend payout is quite steady.

As on date, that is a 6.7% yield. my advice for now would be to wait till the stock goes ex-dividend, at which point it is likely to slump to around12 cents and then pick it up for a steady 8% payout regularly.

The ex dividend date is around May 2013.

The metric for evaluation is whether

a) The stock falls to around 12 cents from May to December 2013.
b) Does the company declare a 1 cent dividend in its next financial year ?

My estimate is that both will occur.

I will do a follow up next year on this.




Year Dividend Growth(%)
2013 0.01 0%
2012 0.01 0%
2011 0.01 -67%
2010 0.03 300%
2009 0.008 -25%
2008 0.01 67%
2007 0.006 -60%
2006 0.015 11%
 
The dividend y























Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Eu Yan Sang

This is a post to determine the value of Eu Yan Sang.

The website of Eu Yan Sang is http://www.euyansang.com

Stripping out working capital changes, the basic numbers look like this


Parameter 2009 2010 2011 2012
Net Income 13.1 19.2 25.3 16.4
Depreciation 7.2 7.2 6.5 7
Capital Expenditures -6.8 -4.7 -7.3 -12.9
FCF 13.5 21.7 24.5 10.5
Total Current Liabilities 55.9 62 62.1 91.1
Total Equity 93.4 107.9 121.8 135.2
Total Liabilities 61.1 68.5 79.2 133
Common Shares Outstanding 445.44 445.44 445.44 445.44
Capital Employed 98.6 114.4 138.9 177.1





FCF Return on Invested Capital 0.136917 0.189685 0.176386 0.059289
FCF Return on Equity 0.13286 0.167832 0.182145 0.092603
FCF / Share 0.030307 0.048716 0.055002 0.023572
Equity Growth 13.12%


Shares Growth 0.00%


Book Value 0.209682 0.242235 0.27344 0.303521
20 Year AAA Bond Rating 4.76%


Risk Free SGD Interest 4%


BV Growth
16% 13% 11%

Using  these numbers, the estimated value of EYS as on date is between 90 to 97 cents per share, if you have a holding period of 20 years in mind.

The shares are priced at 62 cents as on date.

Full Disclosure : I am neither long nor short this share.




Monday, March 25, 2013

Datapulse : A Review of the trading idea

I had done a post on August 12, 2012 to outline a trading idea on Datapulse.

The trading idea was this.
"Datapulse is currently trading at 19 cents a share.
They are not likely to post a loss for the 2H of 2012 (From their 9 month report).
I expect Datapulse to declare a dividend of 1.8 cents for the year.
Once the results is announced, or leading up to the announcement, the share price will appreciate to around 22.5 cents.
You can buy in at 19 cents and get out around 22.5 cents to generate a return of 18% for a three month holding period."
 
 
To cut a long story short, the stock appreciated to 22.5 cents from 19 cents.
 
Assuming you had followed the trading idea, you would have made around 18%, not for three months, but for  around one month.

The stock is currently priced at around 20.5 cent.
 
The old trading idea still holds valid.

You can look to nibble at this stock at prices below 19 cents (I am pretty sure that it will hit those levels sometime before August).

Once it crosses 22.5 cents, look to get rid of your holding.

Sunday, March 10, 2013

UOL Group Limited

A friend of mine had asked me about UOL Group limited.

I took a cursory look at its charts and it looks like there has been a stupendous rise in the last four years.


One has to go all the way back to 2008-2009 to see a steep drop of 43% in share value


In fact, the stock recouped its losses and more than made up in 2009 to 2010.
 





So, does this mean that UOL is set for another big run to $10?

Short answer is no.

Long answer is unlikely.

The trend shows that in a matter of a month or so, it can lose upto 40% of its value, we saw that in the 2011 to 2012 chart.

My suggestion would be to stay clear of this stock.