Thursday, June 6, 2013

The Reason for the Sudden Weakness in Stocks in STI

There have been a lot of reports recently that the markets are spooked by Fed funds tapering of QE and some of you have asked me, what the hell is it to do with us ?

Yes, there is a long term bond rate and so on, but it is a bit puzzling to most.

Let me tell you a story.

Let us assume that you are a billionaire in USA and you want to make some money.

You see your currency depreciating against a currency, say the Singapore Dollar, so you start investing in Singapore Dollar Assets.

As you can see, the US dollar has been sliding versus the Singapore Dollar for the last five years.

Because of the influx of US Dollars, the asset markets in Singapore rise.

This is good for everyone, right, SGD assets rise making both foreigners and locals happy.

You are even more happy, as not only is your currency investment making money, but that is magnified by your asset investment.

If however, the Fed stops QE, then, chances are you think, hey let us bring some of our money back home.

The reader will see the sudden strength of the USD, above.

There is a good chance that this is because of funds flow back to the USA.

Now, not coincidentally, there is a sudden weakness in STI, seen below

The dates exactly are after Bernanke's QE speech.

The one chart which shows all this nicely is below

You will see the exact STI gain mirrored by the exact dollar weakness above.

This, my friends, is the reason for the gyrations in the stock markets.

I am sure that after three months or so of this, somebody will explain this in a long newspaper article.

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