This post is to outline a trading idea on HPH Trust.
Here is a look at the one year graph of HPH Trust
The Investment thesis for HPH is as below
HPH Trust tends to fall on it ex-dividend date and then slowly rise from its ex-dividend date to its dividend announcement date.
In the last one year, we have seen a fall from 67 cents to 62 cents, a fall of 7.5% on its ex-dividend date and a fall from 75 cents to 67 cents , a fall of 11%.
The sharp-eyed reader would have noticed that the rise is 21%, while the fall is between 7-11%.
Currently, it is slowly trending up from 67 cents and is at 70 cents right now.
The outline for my idea is that it will rise to around 81 cents USD from now till Feb 2015.
Assuming one buys now at 70 cents, one can liquidate at 81 cents to make a 15% return.
This does not take into account trading costs, though.
Full Disclosure: I am long HPH Trust and will likely exit at 81 cents.