Monday, October 13, 2014

PCI Ltd - A Review After 18 months

I had done a post on PCI almost eighteen months ago.

Here is a link to that post

http://sgx-stocks-sti.blogspot.sg/2013/06/pci-ltd.html


Here is a chart below of the progression of PCI share price values from June 2013 till date.




As you can see it has been a steady climb from the post date till now.

I had done a partial review on the earnings and dividend as well.


The two open predictions at August 2013 were

c) Will the share price trend below 40 cents by Dec 2013 ?

d) Will the share price rebound above 57 cents by Dec 2014 ?


We can safely answer c) Close, almost there, it hit 40.5 cents, around 0.5% error

Now, we are almost at judgement time, i.e. in the next two months, if my prediction was correct, PCI would hit around 57 cents, which is its intrinsic value.

The company is trading at 54 cents as on date.

I see no reason other than overall market sentiment souring for it to not hit 57 cents.

As I said, two months to go and then we can see whether it was a full house of correct predictions.

Full Disclosure : I have no position in this stock and I will not initiate one.

Disclaimer :- 

I am not an investment professional.

I encourage you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that I write about, because I could be and probably am wrong.

Nothing written here is an invitation to buy or sell any particular stock.

At most, I am handing out an educated guess as to what the markets may do.

The market will always find a new way to make a fool out of me (and maybe, even you!).

Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it.

I am not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of mine will probably be followed by failures

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Rats are Better at Trading

I came across this piece which is hilarious.

Here is a wikipedia link to read about Michael

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Marcovici

The gist is that rats can trade better than humans.

http://theridiculant.metro.co.uk/2009/05/rat-traders-getting-rodents-to-predict-the-stock-market.html

So, if ever you think you are great at trading, please remember there is a rat which is much better than you.