There is an interesting estimate on valuebuddies of the estimated impact on EPS of Vicom.
Here is a chart to show what the share price did from the period I did my post a year back at which time it was 5.6.
Roughly, one would have gained 30%+ as well as the dividend.
Over the last 5 years, the share price has performed very well.
Interestingly, i think the current spike is due to the special dividend of 9.5 cents.
Chances are this is setting up the share for a steep fall once it reaches ex-dividend.
The share price is trading at 6.55 as of this post.
My estimate is that it will trade to below 5.8 when it goes ex-dividend.
That should set up a good long term buying opportunity.
The way to evaluate this would be
a) Does Vicom trade to below 5.8 SGD from now till Dec 2015?
b) A year from now, assuming one buy below 5.8 SGD and holds it till ex-dividend date of 15 August 2016, what is the return one has made?
Disclosure : Neither long nor short, currently, likely to go long in case share price falls below 5.8 SGD.
I am not an investment professional.
I encourage you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that I write about, because I could be and probably am wrong.
Nothing written here is an invitation to buy or sell any particular stock.
At most, I am handing out an educated guess as to what the markets may do.
The market will always find a new way to make a fool out of me (and maybe, even you!).
Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it.
I am not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of mine will probably be followed by failures