Thursday, November 17, 2016

Investing is not a Stock Market Game

Investing is not a game

I was searching on google for some small cap stocks on SGX and came across this article.

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/invest/invest-idols-picks-two-small-caps-with-big-potential

This article is a good illustration of the problem in investing.

The winner won Invest Idol on the basis of

a) A concentrated pick (2 stocks)
b) Focus on growth stocks
c) Margin of Safety approach
d) Great presentation
e) Discipline.

The two picks were Lum Chang and Falcon Energy.

Below is the performance till date



A 15% decline in portfolio value.

In short, it just proves that investing is not a game.

Disclaimer :- 

I am not an investment professional.

I encourage you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that I write about, because I could be and probably am wrong.

Nothing written here is an invitation to buy or sell any particular stock.

At most, I am handing out an educated guess as to what the markets may do.

The market will always find a new way to make a fool out of me (and maybe, even you!).

Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it.

I am not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of mine will probably be followed by failures

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Nothing or Nobody to Piggyback On

Piggyback on Insiders

I had posted about CWT Limited a year back.

https://sgx-stocks-sti.blogspot.sg/2015/11/cwt-limited.html

The gist of the idea was that if CWT Limited dips to around 1.5-1.6, the chairman / insiders in the company will be buying into its shares and if one follows them, one can reap a 20% return.

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1003-page-10.html


Here is a look at the performance of the shares in the last twelve months.


The share price never dipped below 1.8 in the last twelve months.

Unsurprisingly, there has been no insider transaction either.



One might think this is no use, but it is.

It just seems to validate the original hypothesis that CWT gets undervalued at around 1.5-1.6 and 1.9-2 is fair value for the company.

Full Disclosure : I will be keeping an eye out for any insider transaction in CWT Ltd and deploying some cash to piggy-back


Disclaimer :- 

I am not an investment professional.

I encourage you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that I write about, because I could be and probably am wrong.

Nothing written here is an invitation to buy or sell any particular stock.

At most, I am handing out an educated guess as to what the markets may do.

The market will always find a new way to make a fool out of me (and maybe, even you!).

Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it.

I am not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of mine will probably be followed by failures

Monday, November 14, 2016

Did you buy a Stinker? - A look at Yanlord Land Group

Image result for did you buy a stinker of a stock

Many investors cite Warren Buffet's saying of Be fearful when others are greedy and Be greedy when others are fearful.

I had posted about Yanlord last year.

https://sgx-stocks-sti.blogspot.sg/2015/09/yanlord-land-evaluation-after-year.html

The summary of the thesis was

"Chances are this will serve a position in the portfolio where are investing in a hated sector i.e. Property in China is being cooled, no point investing, so, you are taking a contrarian approach.

The bull thesis is that, all you need is for majority share shareholders to privatize this and pay out a small premium to traded price of say 20% and you have made your 20%.

One can take a patient approach and wait for the counter to hit 90 cents anytime from now till March 2016.

There is likely to be a run up in April or May 2016 at which time one has an exit price of say $1.2."

This was posted when Yanlord was at $1.



It dipped below $1 to the 0.98 level by January 2016.

I have highlighted the selling point above, anytime in April or May where one could have exited at 1.2.

All said, one would have reaped a cool 20% for a three - four month holding period.

Disclaimer :- 

I am not an investment professional.

I encourage you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that I write about, because I could be and probably am wrong.

Nothing written here is an invitation to buy or sell any particular stock.

At most, I am handing out an educated guess as to what the markets may do.

The market will always find a new way to make a fool out of me (and maybe, even you!).

Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it.

I am not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of mine will probably be followed by failures